Recession Fear Fueled by Suze Orman?The Bull (& The Bear) Of It All
Saturday, April 18, 2009 at 07:21PM Recessions happen. Recessions come and go with amazing consistency. On average there is a recession approximately every 5 years. Admittedly some are shorter and not so drastic but we have been here before.
What makes this recession different? Why is there so much fear, bordering on panic this time? Are financial advisors like Suze Orman or David Bach fuelling the fear talking about it so much? Or are they simply filling a need? Or is the media in general to blame?
You can't tune into the news without hearing something about the recession. In fact you hear the same sound bites over and over again.
How about a history lesson?
We've all heard of the Great Depression. History shows there has been one recession after another. And yes, worse than the current one. When it gets really bad they call it a depression. We seem to have very short memories. With the media playing these same sound bites over and over again until we truly believe the sky is falling.
If you look at the diagram below you can see the timeline for bull and bear markets going back to 1956.

A bull market being defined as a positive move greater than 15% that last for at least 3 months and a bear market as a negative move greater than 15% lasting at least 3 months.
The first bar in the graph shows a bear market which dropped to -15% and lasted 17 months. This was followed by a bull market which rose 104% and lasted 48 months.
Since 1956 there have been 10 bull markets and 11 bear markets. You can see that bull markets last much longer and have a more significant percentage change.
Bear markets averaged -27% and lasted only 14 months. During this same period bull markets have averaged 148% and lasted 48 months. Not a bad reward for surviving the risk of bear markets.
Typically investors spend more time in a positive bull market than in a negative bear market. Bull markets on average last longer and have a more significant percentage change. Bear markets on the other hand are briefer yet they engender a lot of fear. This is the time when there are bargains to be found.People like Warren Buffet look at this recession and see that real estate and stocks are all on sale.
According to this chart by Mackenzie Investments we have been in this mess before! And we are a good 8 months into this one if you are in Canada and 15 months into it if you are in the US. Now with the average being 17 months; I would say there is light at the end of the tunnel!
The average gain in a bull market is +148% and the average length is 48 months vs
The average loss in a bear market is -27% and the average length is 14 months.
I think what is reassuring about this graph is that we have been there before and the ensuing rise is substantial. The last one was also -45%, lasted 25 months and then rose 108% and lasted 61 months!
The chart also shows that the bull/bear market sticks pretty close to 5 year cycles.
Suze Orman offers some strategies for surviving this recession. It's good advice as far as it goes. But why survive when you can thrive?
Having a fear based mentality serves no purpose. Some of the richest people in the world got rich in times of recession. Bill Gates for example. While others were lining up for gas he was in a dorm room somewhere and well the rest is history.
I remember only too well when the mortgage rates were 18%. Those were tough times. I also remember that same period of time being a boon for some friends of mine. They had actually separated, sold their house and banked about $100 grand. They got paid 18% interest!
There's no shortage of money, just the distribution of money. I heard once that if all the money in the world was distributed equally that within a few years 95% of us would be back where we started sharing 5% of the money and 5% would have 95% of the wealth.
People like Warren Buffet look at this recession and see that real estate and stocks are all on sale.
Suze Orman offers good advice as far as how to tighten your belt. But, what if you could do something to expand your income circle? The way the law of attraction works is that we get what we focus on the most. Do we really want to keep repeating how bad it is?
I believe if we take a step back and see that we have gone through this recession scenario several times and have always come out far better and for far longer we will take this recession in stride and with a positive outlook. We will look to ways to use this recession to our advantage just the way Bill Gates and Warren Buffet do.
Robert Kiyosaki says that the only difference between the rich and the rest of us is the way they think. It's all about mindset. It's about seeing opportunity where others see disaster.
Recession,
Roberti Kiyosaki,
Suze Orman,
bear market,
bull market in
Recession 


Reader Comments (3)
Great story Irene. I think that most people today are caught up in the mindset of a so called recessionary period.
By focusing on the recession it's possible that they are bringing more misfortune upon themselves than good fortune.
In the immortal words of Reverend Ike, "I hear there's a recession going on? Well I refuse to participate!" Think abundance, and nothing else. :-)
Recession? Well if you saw the number of cars and people pulling the one arm bandits here on the Gulf Coast one would certainly be wondering "what recession?"
It blows my mind to see every casino packed wall to wall with machines and 98% of them are being used. Yes , money is in the hands of the few after you leave this place!
Really good points brought out Irene. You can either look at recession in fear, or take it for the opportunity it is. Only through adversity can we achieve true greatness!
Thanks for sharing,
Cindy